Komunidad CRA produces consistent, comparable 0 to 100 risk scores for any location in the Philippines, built from authoritative scientific and government datasets and a transparent, repeatable model. This page explains the approach at a high level.
Following established catastrophe-modelling practice, the CRA evaluates risk as the interaction of four things, kept separate so each can be audited on its own evidence.
The intensity and likelihood of natural threats at the location itself: earthquakes, volcanic activity, tropical cyclones, flooding, storm surge and long-term climate change. Computed entirely from scientific datasets; nothing about the asset changes it.
What stands in the hazard’s path and what it is worth: the asset’s location, replacement value, contents, revenue and operational importance, declared by the client.
How readily the asset is damaged or disrupted when the hazard occurs, reflecting calibrated damage and downtime relationships adjusted for the building’s construction, height, workforce and insurance protection.
The three dimensions combined into money: an expected annual loss and a 0 to 100 financial score per hazard, blended into one portfolio-ready figure and projectable under future climate scenarios.
flowchart LR
HZ["Hazard
how strong and how often
nature strikes the location"] --> FI
EX["Exposure
what stands in the path
and what it is worth"] --> FI
VU["Vulnerability
what fraction is damaged
or disrupted when it hits"] --> FI
FI["Financial impact
expected annual loss and
a comparable 0-100 score"]
Higher means greater risk. Because the same model applies to every location, scores can be ranked and compared across an entire portfolio of sites.
| Score | Band | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 20 | Very Low | Negligible exposure |
| 20 to 40 | Low | Limited exposure |
| 40 to 60 | Moderate | Meaningful exposure, worth mitigating |
| 60 to 80 | High | Significant exposure, mitigation recommended |
| 80 to 100 | Severe | Priority for resilience action |
Each hazard is scored from its own authoritative dataset, then blended into a single multi-hazard score that emphasises the most frequent drivers of loss in the Philippines.
Fault proximity, expected ground shaking, secondary effects and the recorded seismic history around the point.
Sources: USGS · PHIVOLCSDistance to the nearest volcano, the reach of its primary and secondary hazards, and its eruption record.
Sources: Smithsonian GVP · PHIVOLCSOver a century of storm history: wind strength, track frequency, peak intensity and associated storm surge.
Sources: IBTrACS / CLIMADA · PAGASARain-driven flood depth across frequent, moderate and extreme event severities, with coastal surge included.
Sources: DOST Project NOAH · PAGASAProjected temperature and rainfall change to 2050 and 2100 under low, moderate and high emission scenarios.
Sources: CMIP6 · IPCC AR6For flood and surge, the engine reads the small neighbourhood around a coordinate rather than a single point, so a site partly inside a mapped zone, or just outside one, receives a realistic graduated score instead of an abrupt jump or a hard zero.
With the asset’s value, revenue and insurance profile, each hazard score is walked through a transparent loss chain: physical damage to structure and contents, business interruption during downtime, knock-on effects, and the share retained after insurance. Weighting the result by how often such an event occurs gives an expected annual loss, which is expressed as a financial score on the same 0 to 100 scale.
flowchart LR
A["Hazard score
at the location"] --> B["Expected damage
and downtime"]
C["Asset value, revenue
and insurance profile"] --> B
B --> D["Direct loss and
business interruption"]
D --> E["Gross loss, then the
share retained after insurance"]
E --> F["Expected annual loss"]
F --> G["Financial score
0 to 100"]
The per-hazard results combine into a single final financial score, adjusted for how critical the asset is to operations. The result can also be projected forward under a chosen climate scenario and time horizon, producing climate-adjusted loss, valuation and indicative premium metrics for underwriting and long-term planning.
Every intermediate figure is returned in the API response, so any result can be traced from input to output.
| Domain | Source |
|---|---|
| Earthquake | USGS earthquake catalogue · PHIVOLCS active faults |
| Volcanic | Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program · PHIVOLCS |
| Tropical cyclone | IBTrACS / CLIMADA historical tracks · PAGASA |
| Flood | DOST Project NOAH flood hazard maps |
| Storm surge | PAGASA Storm Surge Advisory maps |
| Climate | CMIP6 (ACCESS-CM2) projections · IPCC AR6 scenarios |